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Thursday, February 28, 2013

Crime Prediction Models and Forecasting

Accurate down to 500 square feet

Wow you could be asleep and the E.R.T. squadron could raid your house with the flash bang and then--SURPRISE!  (Well--SURPRISE may not be what you think :-))  But anyway imagine they could raid and clear your house break everything and shoot you and it would be ruled JUSTIFIABLE HOMICIDE:

Computer Aided Dispatch :-)--Oh yea

SCENARIO 1:

Police dispatch:  "ATTENTION ALL UNITS--COMPUTER REPORTS terrorist hold up at Wal Mart in progress,  two white males with handguns and assault rifles holding several hostages in middle of store.  ALL UNITS EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND MAINTAIN OFFICER SAFETY.  ERT and SWAT UNITS RESPOND 10-33.  ALL UNITS SWITCH TO TACT 2 CHANNEL."

Then the cops arrive, put Wal Mart on LOCK DOWN, surround the building and get ready to assault a whole bunch of shoppers.  Meanwhile 3 civilian guys are in there carrying concealed and have no idea what is going on but are concerned for their safety as doors have been locked out front and some black material is covering the glass so they cannot see outside.

Outside and unknown the police get ready to assault and raid the place military style putting everyone down and on the ground.  No manager has advised shoppers of what is going on and some women are crying and  rumors are flying that someone is trying to blow the building up and kill the people inside.   Someone dialed 911 and were told by the dispatcher to just stay inside Wal Mart as the situation outside is too dangerous and they would not tell them what is going on.

Then the guys with their weapons team up talk to management as some  manager has no idea what's going on but tells them to get to the middle of the store with the rest of the shoppers and sit there for their safety.  They decide to get out of there grab some extra ammo and a shotgun from sporting goods and head to a back door buy automotive where they are met with two plain clothes officers coming in a back door where there were wont to get out.  They exchange gunfire and the two officers are shot and killed.  They did not identify themselves as officers.   The citizens then try to escape outside but are met with a large E.R.T. and Sheriff squadron who immediately open fire on them as they run out a back door with drawn weapons.  All three men are killed.  But it's justifiable homicide by computer error.   

Later that day this story become Piers Morgan fodder for his CNN show and he goes on his rant about disarming Americans....etc...

How do you know if no one had a gun in the store that there wouldn't have been anyone shot?  You don't.  

SCENARIO 2:

The three men carrying concealed go to the center of the store as instructed and sit there.  They are told the police are here and everything will be all right.  All of the sudden everyone is sitting where they are supposed to be and the cops start to raid the place.  Several flash suppressors go off unawares and the guys with the guns draw and get ready thinking someone is shooting at them.  They take cover behind some shelves and wait while officers come in and finally identify themselves.  The three immediately holster their weapons and get ready to comply with LAW enFORCEment.  

Cops end up tackling several subjects on their way toward the group of about 50 people in the middle of the store put them all at gunpoint and make them comply to get on the floor face down.  One guy in an electric cart can't do it and the cops end up assaulting him down on the floor anyway.  Lots of screaming and the guys with the guns are found out to be carrying concealed.  The cops treat them like criminals and rough them up causing injury as two of them fit the computer discription in the computer call.  The cops beat the subjects with guns up and detain them while screaming and one woman goes into cardiac arrest over the commotion and dies later on.

One guy tries to fight the cops and tells them to back off and get's tasered and detained also.  

When everyone finally realizes that everything is OK and the call was bogus computer error there is 1 woman dead, 6 minor injuries from police recklessness and the 4 men injured and arrested for nothing and the usual POLICE LINE DO NOT CROSS setup begins.  

I should write stories eh?   



...developing...

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